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The world is getting more violent, and violence is occurring in surprising places. Over the past 15 years, 3.34 billion people, or almost half of the world’s population, have been affected by violence. The number of violent conflicts is decreasing, but conflicts are killing more people: conflict-related deaths have tripled since 2003. Violent extremism and terrorism are also on the rise. The economic cost of violence is rising too: the global economic impact of violence is a staggering USD 13.6 trillion, equivalent to 13.3% of Global GDP. And civilians, especially children and women, are most at risk.
States of Fragility 2016: Understanding Violence takes a long hard look at violence in the world – and what we should do about it. The report showcases emerging thinking about violence, presents a new risk-based approach to monitoring various dimensions of fragility, and looks at financial flows in support of fragile contexts. Understanding Violence finds that development, peace and security efforts in the developing world have not kept pace with the new reality of violence. We need to dedicate more resources and attention to violence. And to be effective, we need to put people – especially youth – at the centre of our efforts.
Violence is one of many factors that can contribute to fragility. However, it is not the only factor, and the presence of violence does not automatically mean that a context is fragile. States of Fragility 2016 places a spotlight on violence, in all its forms, to explore how violence can contribute to fragility, and examine what should be done about it.
For the past year, the world’s policy makers and civil society have focused on two ambitious multilateral compacts – the climate change accord reached last December in Paris and the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development approved last September at the United Nations General Assembly. Both of these agreements are critical to going from the world we have to the world we want.
This chapter provides a review of overall financial flows – official development assistance (ODA), foreign direct investment and remittances – to fragile contexts. The review includes trends and analysis of aggregate financial flows, an in-depth review of ODA and aid dependency in fragile contexts, and analysis of the links (or lack of) between ODA and severity of fragility.
This chapter provides an overview of the main findings about the complex violence landscape in the world today. After a brief discussion of the issues involved in the measurement of violence and conflict, it outlines how violence is increasing, and shows that violence is occurring in surprising places. The chapter then looks at the complexities of violence, its multidimensional nature, and how violence evolves and adapts to changing contexts. There is discussion of violence as a regional issue, including as people are forced from their homes and across borders, and how it is often also an urban problem. The chapter looks at the role of domestic political instability in driving violence, and outlines how civilians, especially civilian women and children, are most at risk. It concludes by outlining the escalating cost of violence, and investigates opportunities in treating violence as a behavioural problem. There are case studies on the Central African Republic and Kenya.
This chapter outlines the OECD’s multidimensional fragility framework, and reviews the results for 2016. After a brief discussion of the background to the framework, and the consultative process undertaken, the chapter outlines the purpose and intended use of the fragility framework. Next is a discussion of the dimensions of fragility – economic, environmental, political, security and societal – and an overview of the methodology involved in the calculations, with cautions over data constraints. The 2016 results, those 56 contexts identified as fragile or extremely fragile on the basis of a synthesis of results in the 5 dimensions, are presented. Following on from this, the chapter looks at the group of 56 in terms of population, regional clustering, macroeconomic conditions (GDP, inflation, poverty and extreme poverty), and in relation to urbanisation rates. Together, this overview provides a snapshot of fragility in the world today.
This chapter provides an overview of the results in the individual dimensions of fragility – economic, environmental, political, security and social. The overview starts by setting out the different degrees of fragility within each dimension, including a map of fragility in each dimension in the world today, and an analysis of the links between each dimension and the manifestation of different types of violence. The chapter continues with discussion of the overall statistical correlation between violence and different aspects of fragility, and an examination of the co-existence, linkages and contradictions between fragility and resilience.
This chapter examines the statistical relationships between official development assistance (ODA) and fragility. It begins by examining ODA flows to fragile contexts historically and projections of future aid disbursements. It then presents an analysis of the relationship between ODA inflows, both in absolute levels and as a percentage of the recipient context’s gross national income, and measures of fragility. This analysis first looks at the relationship between ODA flows and multidimensional fragility. Second, it looks at the relationship between ODA and the individual dimensions of fragility – economic, environmental, political, security and societal – to determine whether aid is addressing the root causes of fragility. The chapter concludes with a review of the quality of finance to fragile contexts.
The OECD’s Development Co-operation Directorate (DCD) has produced Fragile States reports since 2005. These reports explore trends and financial resource flows in fragile and conflictaffected states and economies. They respond to increasing concerns about the implications of fragility for stability and development, especially in the context of Agenda 2030 and the international promise to leave no one behind. The OECD remains one of only a handful of sources of aggregate data and analysis for fragile contexts as a group. In line with the new, multidimensional concept of fragility that began with the 2015 report, the OECD’s annual publications are now referred to as States of Fragility.
This chapter begins with an overview of the main trends and findings around violence – its scope, impact and cost. This is followed by a review of the OECD fragility framework, and its five dimensions of fragility, accompanied by an analysis of what the 56 countries deemed fragile under the framework tell us about fragility in the world today. The chapter continues with a review of the different financial flows – foreign investment, official development assistance (ODA) and remittances – to fragile contexts, casting a spotlight on how ODA is used to address fragility and violence, and how ODA relates to the different dimensions of fragility. The conclusion looks at opportunities for more effective programming, including recommendations in the area of policy, programming and financing.
This final chapter of States of Fragility 2016 describes a tool for understanding violence better, and makes recommendations addressed at the broader fragility and violence community. The violence lens, a tool first presented by the OECD in 2009, is updated to better understand violence today. The report then highlights some areas where the development community can more effectively address fragility and violence. These are grouped as policy, programming and financing recommendations. The report concludes with a call to alleviate the toll of violence and fragility on those who are most left behind.