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This edition of the Agricultural Outlook – the twenty-first OECD edition and the eleventh prepared jointly with the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) – provides projections to 2024 for major agricultural commodities, biofuels and fish. The 2015 report provides a special focus on prospects and challenges for Brazilian agriculture.
The market projections not only cover OECD member countries (European Union as a region) but also FAO member countries, notably Brazil, the Russian Federation, India, People's Republic of China and South Africa.
The Agricultural Outlook 2015-2024, is a collaborative effort of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) and the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) of the United Nations. It brings together the commodity, policy and country expertise of both organisations and input from collaborating member countries to provide an annual assessment of prospects for the coming decade of national, regional and global agricultural commodity markets. The special feature on Brazil has been prepared in collaboration with analysts associated with the Ministério da Agricultura, Pecuária e Abastecimento (MAPA) and Empresa Brasileira de Pesquisa Agropecuária (Embrapa). However, OECD and FAO are responsible for the information and projections contained in this document, and the views expressed in the special feature do not necessarily reflect those of Brazilian institutions.
This chapter provides an overview of the latest set of quantitative medium-term projections for global and national agricultural markets. The projections cover production, consumption, stocks, trade and prices for 25 agricultural products for the period 2015 to 2024. The chapter starts with a description of the state of agricultural markets in 2014 and explains the main macroeconomic and policy assumptions underlying the projections. In the next sections, consumption and production trends are examined, with a focus on calorie and protein consumption. The chapter also reviews trade patterns showing the relative concentration of exports and dispersion of imports across countries for different commodities. The chapter concludes with global agricultural price projections, which include a stochastic analysis to illustrate how uncertainty about the macroeconomic environment and yield levels might affect price projections. Over the next ten years, real prices for all agricultural products are projected to decline from their 2014 levels but remain above their pre-2007 levels.
Prices for crops and livestock products showed diverse trends in 2014. Among crops, two years of strong harvests put further pressure on prices of cereals and oilseeds. Tighter supplies due to factors including herd rebuilding and disease outbreaks supported high meat prices, while the prices of dairy products dropped steeply from historic highs. Further adjustments to short-term factors are expected in 2015, before the medium-term drivers of supply and demand take hold.
This chapter reviews the prospects and challenges facing Brazil’s agriculture, biofuel and fish sectors over the next decade. It reviews sector performance, outlines the current market context, provides detailed quantitative medium term projections for the ten-year period 2015-24, and assesses key risks and uncertainties. Brazil’s main challenges lie in sustaining productivity and production growth, while ensuring that such growth is reconciled with the country’s poverty and inequality reduction objectives and the need for environmental sustainability. The chapter describes the main domestic and trade policies seeking to address these multiple objectives and suggests some strategic priorities, in the areas of productivity-enhancing investments, as well as targeted measures to ensure broad based sustainable development. Brazil is projected to maintain its role as a leading supplier to international food and agriculture markets over the next decade while also meeting the needs of an expanding and increasingly wealthy population. The key risks to this optimistic outlook pertain to Brazil’s macroeconomic performance, the pace of structural reforms, and external factors including China’s import demand.
This chapter describes the market situation and highlights of the latest set of quantitative medium-term projections for world and national agricultural markets, for the ten-year period 2015-24. Each one of the commodity highlights is complemented by a more detailed discussion in the full online version. It provides information on prices, production, use, trade and main uncertainties for cereals, oilseeds, sugar, meat, dairy products, fish, biofuels and cotton. The quantitative projections are developed with the aid of the partial equilibrium model Aglink-Cosimo of world agriculture. The chapter also includes a description of the macroeconomic and policy assumptions underlying the projections, and each of the commodity highlights is followed by statistical tables.