Executive summary
Assessment and recommendations
Chapter 1. After the crisis: ensuring sustained recovery and mitigating future macroeconomic volatility
-Turkey was markedly affected by the 2008-09 recession
-Recovery is in train and prospects for 2010-11 are brighter
-Monetary and fiscal policy exit challenges
-Mitigating risks of macroeconomic instability
-Policy recommendations
-Annex 1.A1. Explaining recent GDP dynamics
-Annex 1.A2. Current account deficit and external debt simulationswith accelerating domestic demand
-Annex 1.A3. Empirical determinants of saving
-Annex 1.A4. Recent trends of public finances
Chapter 2. Fostering sound integration with the global capital market
-Turkey’s terms of access to international capital markets have improved
-Capital costs are declining
-Macroeconomic and institutional credibility accelerates convergence
-Credit ratings bear on international capital market standing
-Other enhancements in international capital market status would bring additional benefits
-Fostering sound integration with the global capital market
-Policy recommendations
-Annex 2.A1. Estimated models for EMBI spreads and credit ratings
-Annex 2.A2. Lessons from Turkey’s past experience with multi-year fiscal planning
-Annex 2.A3. Some challenges of comprehensive general government accounting according to recent experience
-Annex 2.A4. Experience of OECD countries with fiscal policy councils
Chapter 3. Regulatory reforms to unlock long-term growth
-Performance has been strong in the 2000s but the income gap remains large
-Labour market reforms are indispensible
-Product market regulations hold back productivity
-Benefits of labour and product market reforms are large
-Policy recommendations
-Annex 3.A1. The impact of the 2003 labour law change on job creation
-Annex 3.A2. Progress with structural reform: follow-up to OECD policy recommendations
-Annex 3.A3. Illustrative long-term growth scenarios