The OECD Economic Outlook analyses the current economic situation and examines the economic policies required to foster a sustained recovery in member countries. This issue covers the outlook to end-2012 for both OECD countries and selected non-OECD economies. Together with a wide range of cross-country statistics, the Outlook provides a unique resource to keep abreast of world economic developments.
In addition to the themes featured regularly, this issue contains a special chapter entitled “Fiscal consolidation: Requirements, timing, instruments and institutional arrangements. It addresses the following questions: How much budget consolidation is required in individual OECD countries to stabilise the ratio of government debt to GDP and what are the requirements to bring gross debt ratios to 60% of GDP? What factors should determine the appropriate speed of consolidation? What instruments should be employed for consolidation and what kind of public spending should be cut and what kind of taxes should be raised? What fiscal rules and institutions are most likely to foster consolidation?
Table of contents:
Editorial: Rebalancing Policy Chapter 1.General Assessment of the Macroeconomic Situation -Overview -Forces acting on the OECD economies -Growth prospects -Policy responses and requirements Chapter 2.Development in Individual OECD Countries -United States -Japan -Euro Area -Germany -France -Italy -United Kingdom -Canada -Australia -Austria. -Belgium -Chile. -Czech Republic -Denmark -Finland -Greece -Hungary -Iceland -Ireland -Israel -Korea -Luxembourg -Mexico -Netherlands -New Zealand -Norway -Poland -Portugal -Slovak Republic -Slovenia -Spain -Sweden -Switzerland -Turkey Chapter 3.Developments in Selected Non-member Economies Chapter 4.Fiscal Consolidation: Requirements, Timing, Instruments and Institutional Arrangements -Introduction -Fiscal consolidation requirements in a stylised long-term scenario -Fiscal consolidation requirements -The timing of consolidation. -Instruments of consolidation -Institutional settings that foster fiscal consolidation Statistical Annex Demand and Output -1. Real GDP -2. Nominal GDP -3. Real private consumption expenditure -4. Real public consumption expenditure -5. Real total gross fixed capital formation -6. Real gross private non-residential fixed capital formation -7. Real gross residential fixed capital formation -8. Real total domestic demand -9. Foreign balance contributions to changes in real GDP -10. Output gaps Wages, Costs, Unemployment and Inflation -11. Compensation per employee in the private sector -12. Labour productivity for the total economy -13. Unemployment rates: commonly used definitions -14. Harmonised unemployment rates -15. Labour force, employment and unemployment -16. GDP deflators -17. Private consumption deflators -18. Consumer price indices -19. Oil and other primary commodity markets Key Supply-Side data -20. Employment rates, participation rates and labour force -21. Potential GDP, employment and capital stock -22. Structural unemployment and unit labor costs Saving -23. Household saving rates -24. Gross national saving Fiscal Balances and Public Indebteness -25. General government total outlays -26. General government total tax and non-tax receipts -27. General government financial balances -28. General government cyclically-adjusted balances -29. General government underlying balances -30. General government underlying primary balances -31. General government net debt interest payments -32. General government gross financial liabilities -33. General government net financial liabilities Interest Rates and Exchange Rates -34. Short-term interest rates -35. Long-term interest rates -36. Nominal exchange rates (vis-ŕ-vis the US dollar) -37. Effective exchange rates External Trade and Payments 38. Export volumes of goods and services -39. Import volumes of goods and services -40. Export prices of goods and services -41. Import prices of goods and services -42. Competitive positions: relative consumer prices -43. Competitive positions: relative unit labour costs -44. Export performance for total goods and services -45. Shares in world exports and imports -46. Geographical structure of world trade growth -47. Trade balances for goods and services -48. Investment income, net -49. Total transfers, net -50. Current account balances -51. Current account balances as a percentage of GDP -52. Structure of current account balances of major world regions -53. Export market growth in goods and services -54. Import penetration Other background Data -55. Quarterly demand and output projections -56. Quarterly price, cost and unemployment projections -57. Contributions to changes in real GDP in OECD countries -58. Household wealth and indebtedness -59. House prices -60. House price ratios -61. Central government financial balances -62. Maastricht definition of general government gross public debt -64. Macroeconomic indicators for selected non-member economies