Oil consumption is increasingly concentrated in transport and relatively limited fluctuations in transport demand can have increasingly significant effects on oil prices. This Round Table assesses the policy instruments available to address oil security and climate change and examines their interaction with measures to manage congestion and mitigate local air pollution. A number of incompatibilities and trade-offs are identified underlining the importance of integrated policy making. The report includes an examination of the factors that drive oil prices in the short and long term and a discussion of the outlook for oil supply.
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SUMMARY OF DISCUSSIONS INTRODUCTORY REPORTS Peak Oil and the Evolving Strategies of Oil Importing and Exporting Countries by Kjell Aleklett, Sweden 1. Introduction 2. Future Demand for Oil 3. How Much Oil Have We Found and When Did We Find It? 4. Historical Consumption and Limits for Future Consumption 5. Import and Export Scenarios 6. Production of Transport Liquids with CTL and GTL 7. Possible Strategies for Oil Importing and Oil Exporting Countries 8. Awareness of Peak Oil Appendix: Reserve-Driven Forecasts for Oil, Gas and Coal and Limits of Carbon Dioxide Emissions: Peak Oil, Peak Gas, Peak Coal and Peak CO2 Future Prices and Availability of Transport Fuels by David L. Greene, USA 1. Introduction 2. Growing Transport Fuel Demand 3. Resources, OPEC and the Oil Transition 4. Policy and Technological Change 5. The Outlook for Transportation Energy Prices Medium-Term Oil Market Uncertainties by Lawrence Eagles, IEA 1. Overview 2. Supply-Side Uncertainties 3. Investment 4. Conclusion Long-run Trends in Transport Demand, Fuel Price Elasticities and Implications of the Oil Outlook for Transport Policy by Kenneth A. SMALL, USA, and Kurt Van Dender, ITF 1. Introduction 2. The Determinants of Road Passenger Transport Demand and Derived Energy Demand in the Long Run 3. Energy Policy in Transport 4. Conclusion LIST OF PARTICIPANTS
