Assessment and Recommendations
I. Economic Conditions and the Prospects for Faster Growth
-Overview
-Slow growth gives way to renewed expansion
-Forces acting and short-term prospects
-Medium-term growth impediments: inflation intertia and export performance
II. Issues in Fiscal Policy
-Introduction and overview
-Fiscal consolidation in 1998 and 1999
-The medium-term plan and 2000 budget: a greater emphasis on growth
-Medium-term strategy: automatic stabilisers and fiscal flexibility
-Public debt and longer-term issues
-Progress in primary spending control
-Progress in tax reform
III. Coping with the Ageing Problem
-The demographic shock
-Institutional background to the Italian pension system
-Trends in pension system spending and system imbalances
-Care for the elderly
-Ageing, labour supply and economic growth
-Conclusions and policy recommendations
IV. Towards More Balanced Growth: Progress in Structural Reform
-Overview
-A new strategy for convergence
-Privatisation and market liberalisation
-Fostering employment expansion
-Promoting a business-friendly environment
Annex I. Constant Market Share Analysis
Annex II. Safety Margins for Fiscal Stabilisers
Annex III. Debt Dynamics and Convergence to the Maastricht Criteria
Annex IV. The Dini Pension Formula and Retirement Incentives
Annex V. Chronology of Main Economic Events