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ITF Transport Outlook 2015
OECD, International Transport Forum. Published by : OECD Publishing / International Transport Forum , Publication date:  15 Jan 2015
Pages: 170 , Language: English
Version: Print (Paperback) + PDF
ISBN: 9789282107645 , OECD Code: 742014021P1
Price:   €40 | $56 | £36 | ¥5200 | MXN720 , Standard shipping included!
Availability: Forthcoming
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Other Versions:  E-book - PDF Format

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Imprint:  International Transport Forum Tables: 40  Charts: 35 


The ITF Transport Outlook examines the development of global transport volumes and related CO2 emissions and health impacts through to 2050. It examines factors that can affect supply and demand for transport services and focuses on scenarios illustrating potential upper and lower pathways, discussing their relevance to policy making.

This edition presents an overview of long-run scenarios for the development of global passenger and freight transport volumes, with emphasis on changes in global trade flows and the consequences of rapid urbanisation. It focuses on the characteristics of mobility development in developing countries, from Latin America to Chinese and Indian cities, highlighting the importance of urban mobility policies for the achievement of national and global sustainability goals.

Table of contents:

Preface 5
Forward 7
Executive summary 9
Reader's guide 11
Chapter 1. Near-Term Outlook for Economy,Trade and Transport  17
-Economic growth and transport 17
-Global recovery expected to continue but downside risks remain 18
--Modest trade growth projected for the near-term 19
-Trade drives global maritime and air freight volumes 21
--Near-term outlook for air freight suggests slow growth 24
--Global freight data reinforces the observation of a continuous shift of economic mass to emerging economies 26
--Surface freight volumes slowing down in developed economies 28
-Car use shows plateauing in developed economies 30
--Air passenger volumes projected to growth nearly 5% per year in the near term 32
--Rail passenger traffic growth at a steady rate in most countries 34
-OECD countries spend 1% of GDP on road and rail infrastructure on average 34
--Road spending generally declines with the level of GDP per capita 36
--Volume of investment shows diverging trends between developed and developing countries 36
--Mature economice invest increasingly in rail while transition economies invest in roads 37
--Data indicate decline in road maintenance spending in raltion to investment 38
-References 40
Chapter 2. Surface transport demand in the long-run 42
-General modeling framework 42
-Underlying demographic, GDP and oil price scenarios 44
--World population to reach 8.8 billion by 2050 44
--World GDP will grow at an annual average rate of 3.3% between 2010 and 2050 46
--Oil price scenarios 50
-Global surface transport CO2 emission to 2050 52
-Surface freight transport volumes and CO2 emissions 53
--Methodology 53
--Scenarios 54
--Surface transport projections: Results for OECD and non-OECD 56
--Regional breakdown of surface freight transport projections 58
-Surface passenger transport volmes and CO2 emissions 60
-Methodology 60
-Scenarios 63
-Surface passenger transport projections: Results for OECD and non-OECD 63
-Regional breakdown of surface passenger transport projections 65
-References 71
Chapter 3. International freight and CO2 emissions tro 2050 74
-Understanding long-term linkeages between international trade and freight transport 74
-International trade to 2050 75
-International freight and CO2 emissions to 2050: Baseline trade scenario 79
-Relevance of domestic transport linked to international freight 84
-Impact of trade liberalisation on freight and CO2 emissions 85
-Shipping emissions in ports 91
--Overview of shipping emissions in ports 91
--Policy measures to reduce shipping emissions in ports 93
-Conclusions: Transport policies for the supply chains of the future 95
-References 98
Chapter 4. Urban passenger transport scenarios for Latin America, China and India 101
-Urbanisation, economic growth and transport 101
-Urbanisation and economic growth 101
-Urban transport policy scenarios for Latin America, China and India 108
-General modeling framework 109
-Implications of results for mobility 111
-Urban population and economic growth 2010-2050 112
-Urban policy scenarios 114
-Mobility and CO2 emissions to 2050 123
-Latin American cities 124
-Future perspectives for two-wheelers in the Latin American region 126
-Chinese cities 131
-Effect of car ownership restrictions in China under difference urban scenarios 133
-Indian cities 135
-Three-wheeler ban in large Indian cities 137
-Pollution and health impacts 139
-References 150
Statistical annex 153

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