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World Energy Outlook 2013
IEA. Published by : IEA , Date de parution:  02 déc 2013
Pages: 700 , Langue: Anglais
Version: Livre (Broché) + PDF
ISBN: 9789264201309 , Code OCDE: 612013131P1
Prix:   €150 | $210 | £135 | ¥19500 | MXN2700 , Frais de livraison inclus
Disponibilité: Stock faible
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Remplacé par: World Energy Outlook 2014 - (Disponible)
Autres versions:  Livre électronique - Format PDF

Titres connexes

Détails
Imprint:  Agence Internationale de l'Energie Périodicité: Annuel   Tableaux: 150  Graphiques: 280 

Description

A new global energy landscape is emerging, resetting long-held expectations for our energy future. Incorporating these recent developments and world-class analysis, World Energy Outlook 2013 presents a full update of energy projections through to 2035 and insights into what they mean for energy security, climate change, economic development and universal access to modern energy services. Oil, coal, natural gas, renewables and nuclear power are all covered, along with an update on developments in subsidies to fossil fuels and renewable energy.

This year World Energy Outlook also gives a special focus to topical energy sector issues:

-Redrawing the energy-climate map: the short-term measures that could keep the 2°C target within reach, and the extent to which low-carbon development could leave fossil-fuel investments stranded. Special report to be released 10 June.

-Energy in Brazil: how a vast and diverse resource base – from renewables to new offshore discoveries – can meet the growing needs of the Brazilian economy and open up new export markets.

-Oil supply, demand and trade: a fresh look at the economics and decline rates of different types of oil production around the world, the prospects for light tight oil inside and outside North America, along with new analysis of oil products and the refining sector.

-The implications for economic competitiveness of the changing energy map: what the major disparities in regional energy prices might mean for major energy-intensive industries and the broader impact on economic growth and household purchasing power.

-The global spread of unconventional gas supply, including the uptake of the IEA “Golden Rules” to address public concerns about the associated environmental and social impacts.

-Energy trends in Southeast Asia, a region that is exerting a growing influence in the global energy system. Special report to be released 23 September.

The World Energy Outlook is recognised as the most authoritative source of strategic analysis of global energy markets. It is regularly used as input to the development of government policies and business strategies and raises public awareness of the key energy and environmental challenges the world is facing.


Tables des matières:

Foreword 3
Acknowledgements 5
Executive Summary 23

PART A: GLOBAL ENERGY TRENDS 31
1. Scope and methodology 33
-
Scope of report 34
--Introducing the scenarios 34
-Building blocks of the scenarios 37
--Economic growth 37
--Population and demographics 40
--Energy prices 43
-Oil prices 45
--Natural gas prices 45
--Steam coal prices 47
--Carbon markets 49
--Technology 51
2. Global energy trends to 2035 55
-
Overview of energy trends by scenario 56
-Energy trends in the New Policies Scenario 59
--Energy demand 59
--Energy supply 71
--Inter-regional energy trade 76
--Implications for energy-related CO2 emissions 79
-Topics in focus 83
--Energy trends in Southeast Asia 84
--Modern energy for all 87
--Energy subsidies 93
3. Natural gas market outlook 99
-
Global overview 100
-Demand 102
--Regional trends 102
--Sectoral trends 105
-Production 107
--Resources and reserves 107
--Production trends 108
--Focus on unconventional gas 115
-Trade, pricing and investment 123
--Inter-regional trade 123
--Pricing of internationally traded gas 128
--Investment 136
4. Coal market outlook 139
-
Overview 140
-Demand 143
--Regional trends 143
--Sectoral trends 145
-Supply 147
--Resources and reserves 147
--Production 148
--Trade 150
--Costs and investment 152
--Pricing of internationally traded coal 154
-Regional insights 156
--China 156
--United States 159
--India 163
--Australia 165
--ASEAN 166
5. Power sector outlook 169
-
Introduction 170
-Electricity demand 171
-Electricity supply 174
--Capacity retirements and additions 176
--Fossil-fuelled generation 181
--Nuclear power 186
--Renewables 188
--Transmission and distribution 189
--CO2 emissions 190
-Investment 191
-Electricity prices 192
--Residential 194
--Industry 195
6. Renewable energy outlook 197
-
Recent developments 198
-Renewables outlook by scenario 199
-Renewables outlook by use in the New Policies Scenario 201
--Power generation 201
--Biofuels 204
--Heat 207
-Focus on power generation from variable renewables 208
--Wind power 209
--Solar photovoltaics 210
--Implications for electricity systems and markets 212 
--Competitiveness and unit costs 217
-Bioenergy 221
-Investment 224
-Subsidies 225
7. Energy efficiency outlook 231
-
Introduction 232
-Current status of energy efficiency 234
--Recent progress 234
--Recent policy developments 237
--Recent sectoral trends 240
-The outlook for energy efficiency 241
--Trends by region 242
--Trends by sector 245
-Investment in energy efficiency 254
-Broader benefits 256
--Energy imports 256
--Impact on total household expenditure 257
--Local air pollution 259
--CO2 emissions 259
8. Energy and competitiveness 261
-
Energy and international competitiveness 262
-Energy price disparities 267
--Just how big are regional disparities in energy prices? 267
--How are regional energy price disparities set to evolve? 271
-Energy and industrial competitiveness 275
--Why do energy price disparities affect industrial competitiveness? 275
--How does carbon pricing affect industrial competitiveness? 282
--Focus on chemicals 283
--Focus on iron and steel 285
--Focus on refining 287
-The outlook for industrial energy and competitiveness 287
--Focus on the outlook for chemicals 291
-Energy and economic competitiveness 292
--What is the impact of energy price disparities on overall trade balances? 294
--What is the impact of energy price disparities on household income? 296
--Energy competitiveness and policy implications 297
PART B: BRAZIL ENERGY OUTLOOK 301
9. The Brazilian energy sector today 303
-
Introducing Brazil’s energy sector 304
-Domestic energy trends 306
--Power sector 309
--Bioenergy 312
--Oil and gas 315
--Energy-related CO2 emissions and energy efficiency 318
--Regional and global interactions 319
-Projecting future developments 321
--The building blocks 322
10. Prospects for Brazil’s domestic energy consumption 329
-
Domestic energy consumption trends 330
-Outlook for the power sector 332
--Electricity demand 332
--Electricity generation 335
--Transmission and distribution 340
--Investment 341
-Outlook for other energy-consuming sectors 344
--Industry 344
--Transport 348
--Buildings 351
--Other sectors (agriculture, non-energy use) 354
-Outlook by fuel 354
--Oil products 354
--Natural gas 355
--Renewables 358
--Coal 359
11. Brazilian resources and supply potential 361
-
Oil and gas 362
--Resources and reserves 362
--Oil production 367
--Gas production 378
-Renewables 383
--Hydropower 383
--Biofuels 387
--Other bioenergy 391
--Wind 391
--Solar 393
-Other fuels 394
--Coal 394
--Nuclear 395
12. Implications of Brazil’s energy development 397
-
Context for Brazilian energy development 398
-Energy and the Brazilian economy 398
--Pricing 403
--Revenues 403
-Energy trade and security 405
--Regional co-operation 405
--Brazil and international oil and gas markets 407
--Brazil and international biofuels trade 410
-Energy and the environment 411
--Energy-related emissions 413
--Energy efficiency 415
PART C: OUTLOOK FOR OIL MARKETS 419
13.
From oil resources to reserves 421
-
Classifying oil 422
-Conventional oil 425
--Resources 425
--Reserves 430
--Enabling technologies: focus on enhanced oil recovery 437
-Unconventional oil 446
--Resources 446
--Reserves 451
--Enabling technologies 452
-Supply costs 453
14. Prospects for oil supply 457
-
Global oil supply trends 458
-Decline rate analysis 459
--The importance of decline 459
--Decline rates for conventional oil 462
--Decline rates for unconventional oil 466
--Implications for future production 468
-Oil production by type 471
--Focus on light tight oil 474
-Oil production by region 479
--Non-OPEC 479
--OPEC 483
-Supply trends and potential implications for prices 488
--A Low Oil-Price Case 490
-Upstream industry structure 493
-Investment 495
15. Prospects for oil demand 501
-
Global oil demand trends 502
--Oil demand by region 503
--Focus on the Middle East 505
-Oil demand by sector 509
--Transport 511
--Industry 521
--Other sectors 528
-Oil demand by product 528
16. Implications for oil refining and trade 535
Making the connection between oil demand and supply 536
-Products bypassing the refining sector 537
--Natural gas liquids 537
-The refining sector 540
--Global refining outlook 542
--Refining sector outlook by region 546
-Oil trade 561
ANNEXES 567
Annex A. Tables for Scenario Projections 569
Annex B. Policies and measures by scenario 645
Annex C. Definitions 657
Annex D. References 671

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