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OECD Reviews of Risk Management Policies
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Aleksandar S. Jovanovic, Ortwin Renn, Regina Schröter. Published by : OECD Publishing
, Date de parution: 31 août 2012
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Pages: 104
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Langue: Anglais
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Version: Livre (Broché) + PDF gratuit
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ISBN: 9789264173453
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Code OCDE: 032012021P1
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Prix:
€30 | $42 | £27 | ¥3900 | MXN540
, Frais de livraison inclus
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Disponibilité: Disponible
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This report develops a framework of social unrest within a complex understanding of systemic risk. The goal is to try to identify triggers (events that lead to social unrest) and drivers (causal roots) for the emergence of social unrest and, based on this functional analysis, to design policy options on how to avoid, mitigate or handle unrest. The framework should enable a better understanding of the circumstances that may trigger social unrest, how intensely that unrest is likely to materialize and what interventions promise to de-escalate the conflict or even prevent social unrest in the first place. Since social unrest is more a process of escalation than a finite state of the world, the term has been conceptualized in a step-by-step escalation scheme. Each step makes social unrest more severe. It is a gradual framework that identifies the different stages that make social unrest more and more probable. In order to identify relevant drivers and cluster of drivers, three case studies are investigated: pandemics, cyber-related risk and financial crises. The main question is how did or could these events cause social unrests. In a second step, an analytic model is used to capture the combined effects learned from the case study analysis. In a third step,the IRGC risk governance model for explaining the risk of social unrest or predicting the consequences of social unrest is applied. Finally , guidelines for normative governance with respect to social unrest are developed.
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Abbreviations
Chapter 1. Risk of social unrest
-Social unrest as a systemic risk
-Goal and scope of this study
-References
Chapter 2. Characterizing social unrest as systemic risk
-Interconnectedness and frameworking
-Complexity
-Uncertainty
-Ambiguity
-Spill-off (“ripple”) effects
-Summary
-References
Chapter 3. Case histories
-Financial crisis: Greece 2010
-Pandemic flue: H1N1 2009
-Cyber security
-Hurricane Katrina
-Comparison of cases
-References
Chapter 4. Basic model
-Definition and related fields of research
-Political participation
-Collective (political) violence
-Social protest movements
-Structure: A stepwise approach to conceptualize social unrest
--Step 1: Communication of dissatisfaction
--Step 2: Organization of protest
--Step 3: Mobilization of protest groups
--Step 4: Acts of organized civil violence
-References
Chapter 5. Basic model vs. case studies
-Causes, drivers, vectors, indicators
-Comparison between the basic model and the case studies
-References
Chapter 6. System for modelling, mapping and monitoring of social unrest
-Principles
-Modelling and simulation of social unrest
-Agent based modelling for social unrest
-Mapping of social unrest
-Monitoring of social unrest and its indicators
-Sample applications of ABMs: The "Arab spring" – Libya, Tunisia, Egypt
-Sample mapping of social unrest: The "Arab spring"
-Sample monitoring of social unrest: The "Arab spring"
-Sample monitoring of social unrest: Occupy Wall Street and London riots
-References
Chapter 7. Normative governance
-Pre-Estimation
-Interdisciplinary Risk Estimation
-Risk Evaluation
-Risk Management
-References
Chapter 8. Concluding remarks and recommendations
-Concluding remarks
-What was (deliberately) not considered in this work
-Recommendations to policy makers and governance
-Recommendations: to the modelling community
-References
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