The growth of car use in several advanced economies has slowed down, stopped, or turned negative. The change can not be attributed to adverse economic conditions alone. Socio-demographic factors, including population ageing and changing patterns of education, working, and household composition matter. Rising urbanization and less car-oriented policies in some cities also reduce the growth of car use, perhaps combined with changing attitudes towards mobility. Some groups choose to use cars less, others are forced to.
This report summarizes insights into the drivers of change in car use. It shows that explanations are place-specific, and that projections of future car use are increasingly uncertain. The task for policy-makers is to identify mobility strategies that are robust under an increasingly wide range of plausible scenarios.
Tables des matières:
Executive Summary 7 -1. Introduction 9 -2. Indicators of change in aggregate car use volumes 10 -3. Diagnosis 15 -4. Lessons for policy and projections 21 -5. Conclusion 23 -Bibliography 25 Chapter 1.Are we heading towards a reversal of the trend for ever greater mobility? by Jean-Loup Madre (France), Yves Bussière (Mexico), Roger Collet and Irving Tapia Villareal (France) 27 -1. Introduction: Stocktaking in the developed countries 29 -2. The case of France 33 -3. Conclusion 48 -Bibliography 50 Chapter 2.Peak travel, peak car and the future of mobility by Phil Goodwin (United Kingdom) 53 -1. Introduction 55 -2. Aggregate observed trends at national level 56 -3. Explanations offered for the changes in trend 58 -4. Ideas of saturation 60 -5. Explanations based on wider social and cultural factors 65 -6. A research agenda 78 -7. Some future policy issues 82 -Bibliography 88 Chapter 3. Have Americans hit peak travel? by Robert Puentes (USA) 91 -1. Introduction 93 -2. Background and key American driving trends 93 -3. What is behind the changes in US driving habits? 100 -4. Implications for policymakers 106 -5. Conclusion 108 -Bibliography 111 Chapter 4. New driving forces in mobility: What moves the Dutch in 2012 and beyond? by Jan Van Der Waard, Ben Immers and Peter Jorritsma (The Netherlands) 115 -1. Introduction 117 -2. Developments in Dutch mobility over recent years 118 -3. A closer look at car mobility in recent years 120 -4. Possible causes of the reduced growth in car mobility 127 -5. Implications for policy development and associated research questions 147 -Bibliography 149 List of Participants 153